Current position is long the nassies, gold, and 10y bonds… we may switch some of the portfolio to /es if that strength continues… Also the gold position is really a hedge, but if real rates keep edging up it should make a dollar…
We continue to follow momentum but expect a summer scare… we have no theories on where it will start. We can rely on the Market to tell us –it can’t keep a secret. China has an inverted yield curve, so we expect drama there within a year. Also, we expect serious US sell off next year. Maybe down 15-20% But we will follow the market action, not the certainties (lol) of mortals…
Below you can see the summation strength edging over into SPX, but everything is weakening. If we don’t bounce soon, it is probably a short-term top and we’ll have our summer scare quickly…
Beta-rotation actually goes back to stocks, giving utilities a break…
Total option ratio still likes long /nq
Now for some momentum comparisons. The Asia model likes Indonesia and Taiwan, with Singapore dragging (might get some reversion there). Note all of these countries have futures contracts (mostly through Singapore exchange). I am not currently trading the Asia algos, because of (1) unknown risks with the Chinese (and Indian) yield structure and (2) our current desire to lower leverage.
Sector momentum. Note the health surge. Tech is second place now. I feel sorry for my friends who bought energy last year. Painful…
Some etfs that track the companies chasing the future… Look at biotech jump…
But in these macro categories /nq remains the place to sit..
And in the continuing AI/everything race… Its Tesla, Nvidia, and Alibaba…
If you have any sense you don’t bet all your $. I take profits out every year and put in what I call slow money. It’s low risk, slow money. For me that means cheap Vanguard index funds. This is my slow money universe here.
I’m in San Diego/Orange county all next week, working, and training bjj with some Atos killers. Shoot me a message if you wanna have lunch. It might work out, you never know. Running private money can be a lonely business.
Godspeed and happy trading…