There is no perfect trading system.
I have developed, coded, and tested literally thousands of trading systems. I am not exaggerating. They are all imperfect. Now, I would have always agreed with that on a intellectual level. But I think I did not really “get” that until I had done the work of developing these systems and tested them though various market conditions.
Now I think of systems in terms of yield. A system is not unlike a bond that has a yield that streams off of the instrument itself.
If you like things more literal. Imagine you build windmills. You can maximize efficiency of your blade shape for different speeds and frequency of winds. But one blade will not be efficient in all conditions. Just like a real wind farm, you maximize your blade shape for your prevailing wind condition. If the winds are significantly above or below that condition it is often best to just brake-stop the windmill.
System designers obsess over the shape of their blade, but they often do not think about measuring the conditions in which that blade has maximum efficiency.
One of the most thoughtful reads on AI I have come across…
Tad Friend writes that thinking about artificial intelligence can help clarify what makes us human—for better and for worse.
— Read on www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/05/14/how-frightened-should-we-be-of-ai
Great work. Clear. Concise.
We love to prognosticate, but it’s impossible to do so without severely glossing over the complexities of the real world. That leads us to false dichotomies, like “Blockchain technology will change everything” versus “Blockchain is all hype.”
— Read on www.aier.org/article/five-reasons-we-dont-know-what-future-will-look
Here is a new old argument. Central planning! Except done by AI. I disagree. Markets will not be replaced, but made more efficient by AI closer to the need/supply decision makers.
Mass unemployment caused by AI will usher in communism.
— Read on www.washingtonpost.com/news/theworldpost/wp/2018/05/03/end-of-capitalism/
Materials science is just cool…
Method assembles cellulose nanofibres into a material stronger than spider silk
— Read on phys.org/news/2018-05-method-cellulose-nanofibres-material-stronger.html
The real story is that serious people are chasing this…
Biologist George Church says the idea is to live to 130 in the body of a 22-year-old.
— Read on www.technologyreview.com/s/611018/a-stealthy-harvard-startup-wants-to-reverse-aging-in-dogs-and-humans-could-be-next/
Still a long way to a cure… but take what we can get…
Tissue-engineered human pancreatic cells successfully treat diabetic mice
— Read on medicalxpress.com/news/2018-05-tissue-engineered-human-pancreatic-cells-successfully.html
Great work here… make your kids read it.
Three wild speculations from amateur quantitative macrohistory
— Read on lukemuehlhauser.com/three-wild-speculations-from-amateur-quantitative-macrohistory/
More CRISPR magic…
A Salk Institute team found transplanting liver cells into hemophilic mice restored their ability to form blood clots. The hope is that this one-and-done treatment could replace the frequent injections of clotting factors currently used to treat the inherited blood disorder.
— Read on www.fiercebiotech.com/research/a-liver-cell-transplant-could-replace-lifelong-injections-for-hemophilia-b-patients