If you’re going to be a yachting billionaire, be cool like Brin. Forget ocean yachts, build an air yacht.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/may/26/google-sergey-brin-building-largest-aircraft
Big read. Future of work…
http://www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/employment-and-growth/technology-jobs-and-the-future-of-work
The development of automation enabled by technologies including robotics and artificial intelligence brings the promise of higher productivity (and with productivity, economic growth), increased efficiencies, safety, and convenience. But these technologies also raise difficult questions about the broader impact of automation on jobs, skills, wages, and the nature of work itself.
We find that about 60 percent of all occupations have at least 30 percent of activities that are technically automatable, based on currently demonstrated technologies. This means that most occupations will change, and more people will have to work with technology. Highly skilled workers working with technology will benefit. While low-skilled workers working with technology will be able to achieve more in terms of output and productivity, these workers may experience wage pressure, given the potentially larger supply of similarly low-skilled workers, unless demand for the occupation grows more than the expansion in labor supply.
On a global scale, we calculate that the adaptation of currently demonstrated automation technologies could affect 50 percent of the world economy, or 1.2 billion employees and $14.6 trillion in wages. Just four countries—China, India, Japan, and the United States—account for just over half of these totals. There are sizable differences in automation potential between countries, based mainly on the structure of their economies, the relative level of wages, and the size and dynamics of the workforce.
As machines evolve and acquire more advanced performance capabilities that match or exceed human capabilities, the adoption of automation will pick up. However, the technical feasibility to automate does not automatically translate into the deployment of automation in the workplace and the automation of jobs. Technical potential is only the first of several elements that must be considered. A second element is the cost of developing and deploying both the hardware and the software for automation. The supply-and-demand dynamics of labor are a third factor: if workers with sufficient skills for the given occupation are in abundant supply and significantly less expensive than automation, this could slow the rate of adoption. A fourth to be considered are the benefits of automation beyond labor substitution—including higher levels of output, better quality and fewer errors, and capabilities that surpass human ability.
Even while technologies replace some jobs, they are creating new work in industries that most of us cannot even imagine, and new ways to generate income. One-third of new jobs created in the United States in the past 25 years were types that did not exist, or barely existed, in areas including IT development, hardware manufacturing, app creation, and IT systems management. The net impact of new technologies on employment can be strongly positive. A 2011 study by McKinsey’s Paris office found that the Internet had destroyed 500,000 jobs in France in the previous 15 years—but at the same time had created 1.2 million others, a net addition of 700,000, or 2.4 jobs created for every job destroyed. The growing role of big data in the economy and business will create a significant need for statisticians and data analysts; we estimate a shortfall of up to 250,000 data scientists in the United States alone in a decade.
https://www.aei.org/publication/on-mark-zuckerberg-and-the-merits-of-univeral-basic-income/
Universal basic income will eventually happen. It’s great if a society can afford it. Fairly efficient compared to endlessly extending the wealth gap problem forwards. Also, if connected to the central banks desire to malnipulate economies, it is a great way to helicopter-drop money to the people who will actually spend it, rather than blowing bubbles in asset markets. Which is what we currently do.
Did Trump get played???
Zakaria: How Saudi Arabia played Donald Trump – CNN https://apple.news/Az9Cf12EMSgiY_jiWhhgltQ
Zakaria is one of the smartest guys on tv. He also understands the world in deep ways. Unfortunately, he is basically seen as a spokesperson for the global elite’s politics. He fears Trump was played. Zakaria is projecting… if he had been sucked into the Arabian view of the world then yes he would have been played. Zakaria is an honorable man whose words have consistency and reflect an integrated person. Trump can make 1000 agreements, and they will mean nothing. Trump needed a successful foreign trip. That’s all he needed. Whatever agreement or worldview the Saudi Arabian leaders think they have convinced Trump to adopt means nothing. Trump isn’t cynical, he is whatever Cynical was trying it’s whole life to be-when-it-grew-up.
On writing as value… paul Romer
http://wb-ce.org/writing.html
People make progress by discovering and sharing useful ideas. The value of an idea is proportional to the number of people who use it.
Spoken language gave humans a unique capacity for moving an idea from one person’s neurons to another’s. Writing makes it possible for one person to convey an idea to many others. If a document is well written, anyone with a copy can read it and convert the codified knowledge stored in text back into human capital stored in neurons.
Writing is the bottleneck that holds back the rate of diffusion of ideas. Writing is a production process that converts knowledge stored in neurons into knowledge codified as text. Writing clearly and concisely is a time consuming, multi-stage process that starts with composing and is followed by multiple rounds of editing and user testing. The essence of this process is captured by the apology that I used as the tagline for this update: “I would have written less but I didn’t have the time.”
Paul Singer’s market truths – excellent!!!
http://www.businessinsider.com/paul-singers-elliottt-has-investing-advice-for-hedge-fund-managers-2017-5
“No security price is too high (or low) that it cannot go higher (or lower);Turns in markets are impossible to time;
Big changes in market prices frequently occur far in advance of when the reasons for the changes become apparent, and by then it is too late to incorporate the new information into one’s trading at the old prices; (this is so true! – nd)
One of the most important reasons to avoid significant losses is to avoid the painful and sometimes terminal effect of severe adversity on the quality of money managers’ decision-making processes; and
A wide and deep education about the world, not just about capital structures, corporate business strategies and industry dynamics, is essential to the long-term success of money managers.”
These lessons “have shaped Elliott’s attitude towards trading, investing, predictability of markets, risk management and building an organization,” Elliott added.
David Brooks, dropping truth…
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/26/opinion/the-four-american-narratives.html?smprod=nytcore-ipad&smid=nytcore-ipad-share
The first is the mercantilist model, which sees America not as the culmination of history but as one major power in competition with rival powers, like China, Russia, Europe and so on. In this, to be American is to be a member of the tribe, and the ideal American is the burly protector of his tribe.America’s government and corporations should work closely together to “protect our jobs” and beat back rival powers. Immigration and trade should be closely controlled and foreign entanglements reduced. America’s elites would have an incentive to share wealth with America’s workers because they need them to fight off their common foes.
The second is the talented community. This story sees America as history’s greatest laboratory for the cultivation of human abilities. This model welcomes diversity, meritocracy, immigration and open trade for all the dynamism these things unleash. But this model also invests massively in human capital, especially the young and those who suffer from the downsides of creative destruction.
In this community, the poor boy and girl are enmeshed in care and cultivation. Everything is designed to arouse energy and propel social mobility.
The mercantilist model sees America as a new Rome, a mighty fortress in a dangerous world. The talented community sees America as a new Athens, a creative crossroads leading an open and fundamentally harmonious world. It’s an Exodus story for an information age.
Biotech has so much potential…
Biotechnology is like a super car forced to drive at 55 mph by regulation. And we can’t really complain because the risks are so great.
http://www.leafscience.org/treating-diseases-with-a-protein-missile-system/
Dr. Sapkota commented in a university press release “For the first time we have shown that it is possible to target endogenous proteins for complete degradation with AdPROM,” and “This is extremely exciting and has far-reaching applications and implications for both research and drug discovery. Being able to selectively degrade target proteins in cells rapidly is desirable in research and therapeutics.” he continued.
The targeting and rapid destruction of specific proteins could potentially allow scientists to determine the effect of removing these proteins and the possible reversal of disease state by doing so.
4th industrial revolution
http://cio.economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech-talk/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-will-be-personal/2378
This is the first article in a three part series discussing the Fourth Industrial Revolution, how machine learning and humans can create a way to navigate through this revolution and what it means for banks. The first article will focus on how the Fourth Industrial Revolution is going to impact businesses across the world. The second will look at how machine learning is creating new ways in which customers expect to be treated and pathing the way for new open platforms. The final article in this series will look at how humans are adapting to the new revolution, for both the good and the bad.
Real battery gains…
We recently compared our prototype cell for a wearable device with a comparable commercial Li-ion cell by deliberately creating a precarious scenario. We overcharged a conventional 130-mAh Li-ion cell and our 100-mAh silicon Li-ion cell to 250 percent of capacity and simultaneously punctured the package of each (through the standard nail-penetration test). The conventional Li-ion cell burst into flames, but our silicon Li-ion cell did not.
To fabricate the Enovix battery, we begin with a wafer of silicon that’s 1 millimeter thick. This doesn’t have to be the chip-grade stuff—it can be the same low-cost material that is used to produce solar cells. To the wafer we apply a photolithographic mask and etch the required pattern with typical silicon etchants borrowed from the solar industry. Because the pattern can vary in shape—square, rectangular, round, oval, hexagonal—as well as in length and width, we have the ability to form a wide variety of cell designs. The silicon that’s left behind where the mask was placed forms the anodes and “backbones” of the interlaced cell structure.
Next, we selectively deposit a thin coat of metal film onto the anodes and backbones to form current collectors and then deposit a ceramic separator around the collector on the anodes. Because the anodes and backbones are not electrically connected on the wafer, we can selectively electroplate different coatings on each. To create the cathodes, we inject a conventional cathode slurry, filling the remaining voids in the wafer. Then a laser slices off individual 1-mm thick die from the wafer, with the lateral dimensions of the die approximating the dimensions of the final battery. Positive and negative tabs are then attached to each die, which are baked to remove moisture, and stacked to form the desired height of the battery. The tabs are all connected to form a single positive and negative tab for the cell, and the resulting stacked cell is then pouched or inserted into a metal can, which is filled with electrolyte, sealed and tested.
Our architecture, silicon wafer photolithography, and etching process are comparable to what is used in three-dimensional MEMS. Hence we dubbed our device the 3D Silicon Lithium-ion battery. We compared a prototype with a conventional Li-ion battery having the same form factor, one designed to fit in a smart watch (that battery was 18 by 27 by 4 mm). Our internal tests showed our battery to have much higher capacity and a corresponding increase in energy density—695 Wh/L as opposed to about 460 for the conventional cell.
Much of this manufacturing technology comes, of course, from the solar cell business. The progress in that field—fueled by immense R&D investment worldwide—at once explains the low cost of our manufacturing approach and the likelihood that it will continue to improve in efficiency and scale.
Consumers yearn for better and more powerful batteries for their mobile devices, as survey after survey attests. Most demanding of all are the wearable devices and microsensors that are being created for the Internet of Things. Such IoT devices have even less room in them for batteries than do tablets and smartphones.
This wouldn’t be the first time that photolithography and wafer production have suddenly revamped whole industries. It happened first when computers began to use integrated circuits. These fabrication techniques were also applied to lighting, which moved from fluorescent tubes to light-emitting diodes and to video displays, which went from cathode ray tubes to liquid crystal displays.
We believe that the approach we’re pioneering will bring about a similar transformation in the market for lithium-ion batteries. The change will first appear in wearables, next in IoT and phones, and ultimately in electric vehicles and grid storage, as volumes scale up and manufacturing costs come down, as it already has in the solar industry.
With safer, thinner, and higher-energy batteries, designers will have more flexibility to create breakthrough products. Expect mobile devices to get smaller, to last longer between charges, and to continue to deliver amazing new capabilities to enhance our lives.