Trade update 8/6/17

Closed 10y bond long

Closed oil short

Close hogs short at open

Currently long ndx

I tend to trade the intermediate term setups. That means my commodity trades are fairly active, days to weeks in duration. My equity setups are somewhat longer in duration. The reason is that that is the time duration where I can find actionable algorithms.
I do not believe anyone can predict the market, not Warren Buffet, not George Soros, and certainly not the banks and institutions. Technicians, nor fundamentals, nor Elliot Wave wonks, nor Wychoffians. No one can predict it. It is folly to try. I want to position myself to follow the market, not predict the market. However, I love to read/listen to people who think they can predict the market –that strengthens the philosopher within.

Slow mo money is still in Europe

Fast money is seeing China A50 and Indian Nifty with a little more push than Nasdaq, I’m sticking with NDX for many reasons, including liquidity

Nvidia is still smashing the AI race, with twice the return of other companies.

According to the St Louis Fed Stress Index there is essentially no clearing or liquidity stress in the market. The bears rightly point out, OMG IT CAN ONLY GO BAD FROM HERE!!! Yawn. I have no opinion.

The term structure on the VIX is orderly, showing some flattening in Dec, which is to say, nothing bad happens in December.

The velocity of M2 money just keeps going down. Which probably says as much about demographics as it does economic growth or monetary policy. And the monetary base is going down also, which means it is going to be tough to Make America’s Growth Great Again!

The Cleveland Fed Yield-Curve GDP predictor has GDP growth at 1.7ish% Seems reasonable to me. No opinion.

If you like to play sectors, Financials just overtook Technology on my momentum models.

Have a good week.

NJ

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