Trade position update 7/23/17

Gentle readers, do not think I have abandoned you to the cold indifferent of the HFT algorithms. I am simply holding tight with my systems. Still long nasdaq, long gold, long 10y bonds. When my systems change I will inform you. We should all of us expect a 1 or 2% sell-off (or more) at any moment. That’s living with markets. Currently, I suspect that there are so many institutions that have missed this post-election market surge, their desire to get long will stop serious sell-offs.  But that is just my thoughts. I do not trade on my thoughts or opinions. I’m a systems trader. And every time I read some trader raging on twitter because he or she believes the central banks are rigging the markets, I just smile. I used to be you. I could not admit that I just sucked as a trader and was too often on the wrong side of asymmetrical information. So I invented or imagined or descried a Conspiracy!!! Ah, human nature.

Let me share two signs of my current impudence, so you might use my folly to identify market tops! After listening to A16z podcast, and being reminded of the value of tracking what nerds do for fun, I’ve started mining crypto-currency!  Yes! Shocking. I have no desire to trade it. But I want to understand where this is all going. So I’m learning. Reading. Thinking. Modeling. Secondly, I’m trading volatility again, at very small size. Yes, it is a tough market. But I believe it is the most sensitive of all the markets. I think it flinches first. It is my canary…

Happy trading. And the market is probably going to punch us soon. So don’t act surprised. Look at your brokerage amount. That is not your money. That is the market’s money. It will fluctuate.

Ps. I am traveling this week. So fewer posts.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *