My warning to XIV community a year ago

Nearly a year ago, I went into the TradeXIV community on reddit and posted this warning. I didn’t know the whole XIV complex would blow up a short time later. I was shouted down by a few folks, as you can read. But here it is… and I should say that it is rare to be really right in this game. Usually, we are mostly right, kinda right, or right but too early, or just wrong. But this time I was perfectly right. I closed out substantial profits and left the casino. Then it burned down. True story.

1 year ago
Community warning…
I just want to say as a reminder if anyone is trading volatility with money they really need–Please stop. Only trade money you can afford to lose! Volatility trading is the most dangerous end of a profession that destroys banks and mocks Nobel prize winning economists. But the Fed isn’t going to bail you out! It isn’t easy or free or sexy. It is simply risk transfer. Someone is paying you to take their risk. Imagine someone paying you to take their risk of cancer or heart-attack. Think of the money you could make! That’s awesome until you cough and your hand comes away bloody. Yes, that’s a dramatic example but it illustrates a truth about risk. You can’t remove risk. But financially, you can transfer it. Taking other people’s risk of ruin is what us volatility guys are being paid the big bucks for. Please remember that.

Community warning… from tradeXIV

Guide to the Riskboard

In an effort to be transparent (and also to create a public record of the TGM proprietary risk systems) I will be posting risk assessments of certain global markets. However, one should note that I am an optimist and believe that one should be invested – so my risk assessment reflects that risk-profile. My version of “acceptable” risk does not apply to you specifically. You should get professional advice.

The productivity paradox – MIT Technology Review

All great general purpose technology changes produce huge booms and huge busts.

In this view, AI is what economic historians consider a “general-purpose technology.” These are inventions like the steam engine, electricity, and the ­internal-combustion engine. Eventually they transformed how we lived and worked. But businesses had to be reinvented, and other complementary technologies had to be created to exploit the breakthroughs. That took decades.

The mission of MIT Technology Review is to equip its audiences with the intelligence to understand a world shaped by technology.
— Read on

A machine has figured out Rubik’s Cube all by itself – MIT Technology Review

…random turns of a Rubik’s Cube cannot easily be rewarded, since it is hard to judge whether the new configuration is any closer to a solution. And a sequence of random turns can go on for a long time without reaching a solution, so the end-state reward can only be offered rarely.
— Read on

New Evidence Shows Our Darkest Fears Can Be Rewired | Inverse

Extrapolate this science 50 Years and the world looks very different. The evils of the future may be very different than today.

Deep-seated fear memories can potentially be rewired, researchers say. A ‘Science’ paper published Thursday shows new evidence suggesting fearful memories that dwell deep in the brain’s neural circuitry don’t have to be a burden forever. It’s possible, the paper suggests, that they can be rewired.
— Read on

Why the Future of Machine Learning is Tiny « Pete Warden’s blog

Photo by Kevin Steinhardt When Azeem asked me to give a talk at CogX, he asked me to focus on just a single point that I wanted the audience to take away. A few years ago my priority would have been convincing people that deep learning was a real revolution, not a fad, but there…
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Ultra-capacitor hybrid radically boosts power and efficiency of lithium batteries

Combining the unique strengths of lithium batteries with crazy-fast charging, carbon ultra-capacitors could save a ton of weight and add significant range and power to electric vehicles, according to this fascinating French startup.
— Read on